◀ WORLD II · THE FOLDTHE OCHO · blue builds │ the machine │ red breaks

THE SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

Why economies grow, why they stop, and why the poor can catch up. Capital per worker climbs while investment beats depreciation and stalls where they balance: k̇ = s·f(k) − (n+δ)k, with f(k)=kα. Down the center the parameters go in, the ODE integrates, and a proven steady state comes out. The blue team builds and defends it; the red team tries to break it. These are models, not investment advice.

source Solow, A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 (1956), 65–94 — doi.org/10.2307/1884513. Rendered, not quoted.

▧ blue team · builds & defends
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THE MODEL — capital chases a steady state

One state variable, capital per worker k. It rises by saved output s·f(k) and falls by break-even requirements (n+δ)k — new workers to equip (n) and worn capital to replace (δ). Diminishing returns (α<1) bend investment below the straight break-even line, so they must cross once, at a unique steady state:

k* = (s / (n+δ))1/(1−α),   where   s·f(k*) = (n+δ)·k*.

For the current settings, the live fixed point:

quantityvalue
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THE LINEAGE — saving is a level, tech is the slope AVAN

The engine f(k)=kα is a per-worker Cobb–Douglas production function — the neighbouring sphere. Solow builds directly on it.

Raising the saving rate lifts k* and output once — a level effect. It does not raise the long-run growth rate: at any steady state k̇=0, so per-worker growth is zero. Sustained per-capita growth needs the function itself to shift — technology (A), which Solow leaves exogenous. Each sphere is the next one's premise.

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THE WITNESS live

The blue team's live check: integrate the ODE from below and above k* and confirm both land on the analytic fixed point, that the residual s·f(k*)−(n+δ)k* is ~0, and that the golden-rule rate equals α. If red flips a sign, this badge is where it shows.

▼ the machine ▼
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DATA IN — the parameters in ↓

Four numbers describe the economy, plus a starting capital stock:

symbolmeaning
ssaving rate — the share of output invested
αcapital share / elasticity in f(k)=kα
nlabour-force growth rate
δdepreciation rate of capital
k₀initial capital per worker

These feed the panel below. The steady state depends only on s, α, n, δ — not on where you start (k₀): convergence is the whole point.

▼   feed the parameters into the engine   ▼
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▣ THE PANEL — the engine LIT

Curve = investment s·f(k); line = break-even (n+δ)k; they cross at k*. The dot slides from k₀ toward k*.

Move any slider — k* is re-solved from the closed form and the path is re-integrated on the spot, never looked up. Forecasts of any real economy from this would be AMBER: it is a model, not advice.

▼   the engine emits a proven steady state   ▼
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DATA OUT — the result out ↓

What the machine produces, proven: a unique, stable steady state k* where investment equals break-even; a Runge–Kutta path from any k₀ that lands on it to 1e−6; the level-not-growth reading of saving; and the golden-rule rate s=α that maximises steady-state consumption. The current numbers are above; the totals are the output.

The blue team's witness (left) re-integrates these live; the red team (right) tries to make capital diverge.

red team · attacks & breaks ▨
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THE ADVERSARY

WALL The thing that actually drives long-run growth — technology A — is exogenous: assumed, never explained. Solow names the gap the residual, a measure of ignorance. Saving, population, and depreciation are handed in from outside too.

Its scaffolding is idealization (AMBER): perfect competition, one representative agent, one homogeneous good, a smooth Cobb–Douglas with constant returns and diminishing marginal product, a closed economy, all other things equal. Endogenous-growth theory (Romer 1986, Lucas 1988) makes technology a choice and breaks the model open. Economics is not physics; a "law" here is a modelling assumption, and this is a model, not investment advice.

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THE GRAVEYARD

"Save more and you grow faster forever." Cut. Higher s is a level effect: it lifts k* once, then long-run per-worker growth returns to zero. The engine verifies k̇=0 at every steady state.

"Solow explains what causes growth." Corrected. The driver, technical progress, is the exogenous Solow residual — measured, not explained.

"Poor countries always catch up." Corrected. Only conditional convergence: each economy approaches its own k*, set by its own s, n, δ. Absolute convergence across all countries fails in the data.

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THE TAMPER — break it

The red team's move: flip the sign of depreciation so worn capital is added instead of removed — k̇ = s·f(k) + (n+δ)k. Now capital only ever grows: no steady state, no convergence. The blue team's witness (window 7) is watching.

Flip the sign and the ODE diverges — the witness re-integrates, cannot reach k*, and turns red. Nothing is faked; the attack is real and it is caught.