◄ WORLD II · THE FOLDTHE OCHO · blue builds │ the machine │ red breaks

THE REPLICATOR DYNAMICS

Strategies that do better than the crowd grow; the rest shrink. No agent reasons, no one optimizes — yet the population is dragged toward equilibrium by differential reproduction alone. Down the center, data flows: a payoff matrix and a starting mix go in, the replicator ODE integrates on the strategy simplex, and a proven trajectory comes out. The blue team builds and defends it; the red team tries to break it.

source P. D. Taylor & L. B. Jonker, Evolutionarily Stable Strategies and Game Dynamics, Math. Biosciences 40 (1978) 145–156 — semanticscholar.org · Taylor&Jonker·1978 (no open DOI — journal/year cited, AMBER). Rendered, not quoted.

◧ blue team · builds & defends
3

THE MODEL — the equation

One rule, no rationality. Let x be the population share vector on the simplex, A the payoff matrix, so strategy i’s fitness is fi = (Ax)i and the crowd average is φ = x·Ax. Then

dxi/dt = xi ( fi − φ )

Above average → grow. Below → shrink. The −φ is the whole trick: it is exactly what makes the shares keep summing to 1. Live, for the current state:

ishare xifitness fifi−φ

5

THE LINEAGE — Nash as a rest point AVAN

A symmetric Nash equilibrium is exactly a rest point of this flow: there every surviving strategy earns the same payoff fi, so dx/dt=0 — equilibrium reached with no reasoning agent anywhere.

Selection does what deliberation was supposed to. This is the mean-field shadow of the-policy-gradient — a single learner ascending expected reward — and the dynamic that selects among the fixed points of the-nash-equilibrium. Each sphere is the next one’s premise.

7

THE WITNESS live

The blue team’s live check, recomputed from the running engine: the simplex stays invariant, the interior Nash is a genuine rest point, and a dominated strategy dies. If red drops the −φ term, the invariance breaks and this badge turns red.

▼ the machine ▼
4

DATA IN — the game in ↓

A symmetric matrix game on three strategies. Entry Aij is the payoff to a player using i against a partner using j; against a whole population x, strategy i earns (Ax)i. That is all the environment is — no beliefs, no lookahead. The current matrix:

Avs 1vs 2vs 3

Plus a starting mix x(0) on the simplex. Feed both to the engine below; the flow field does the rest.

▼   integrate the ODE on the simplex   ▼
0

▣ THE PANEL — the engine LIT

Every step is Euler’s method on dxi/dt = xi(fi−φ), computed from A on the spot — never a stored curve.

▼   the flow lands on a rest point   ▼
8

DATA OUT — what is proven out ↓

Four properties, checked live on load and re-checked by the witness: (1) the simplex is invariant — shares stay ≥0 and sum to 1 (to 1e−6) at every step; (2) the interior Nash is a rest point (dx/dt=0 to 1e−9); (3) a strictly dominated strategy goes extinct; (4) near the ESS the trajectory converges to it.

The blue witness (left) confirms these live; the red team (right) tries to make them false.

red team · attacks & breaks ◨
1

THE ADVERSARY

WALL Convergence is not guaranteed. Plain Rock–Paper–Scissors gives closed orbits that circle the center forever and never settle — the replicator selects nothing there. And rest points include every pure state and unstable saddles, not only the good equilibria; where you start decides where you land.

The model is a mean field: an infinite, perfectly mixed population with no mutation, no noise, no structure. And Taylor & Jonker warn in the same paper that the discrete map can overshoot and destabilize an ESS the continuous flow attracts — the equation is a limit, not the finite truth.

2

THE GRAVEYARD

“Replicator dynamics always converges to a Nash equilibrium.” Cut. RPS cycles indefinitely; only special games (e.g. an interior ESS) attract — run RPS in the panel and watch it refuse to settle.

“Every rest point is a Nash equilibrium.” Cut. Every simplex corner is a rest point; the badly-chosen ones are unstable. Nash ⊆ rest points, not the reverse.

“The discrete update behaves like the ODE.” Kept, corrected. Only for small dt — Taylor & Jonker show the discrete dynamic can overshoot where the continuous one is stable.

6

THE TAMPER — break it

The red team’s move: delete the average-fitness subtraction, so dxi/dt = xi·fi with no −φ. The total mass then grows and the shares stop summing to 1 — the population leaves the simplex.

Drop the −φ term and mass is no longer conserved; the witness (window 7) recomputes the sum, sees it drift off 1, and turns red. Nothing is faked — the attack is real and it is caught.