◄ WORLD II · THE FOLDTHE OCHO · blue builds │ the machine │ red breaks

THE IS-LM MODEL

Where the goods market and the money market agree at once. Hicks read Keynes as two curves in one plane: the IS curve — output falls as the interest rate rises (investment gets dearer) — and the LM curve — the rate rises as output grows (money gets tighter). They cross at a single point (Y*, r*), and that crossing is the Keynesian cross of macro policy. Feed the parameters in, solve the 2×2 live, read the equilibrium out. These are models, not investment advice.

source J. R. Hicks, Mr. Keynes and the "Classics": A Suggested Interpretation, Econometrica 5(2), 147–159 (1937) — jstor.org/stable/1907242 (paywalled, cited by DOI 10.2307/1907242). Rendered, not quoted.

◧ blue team · builds & defends
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THE MODEL — two curves, one plane

IS (goods clear): consumption C = c₀ + c₁(Y−T), investment I = I₀ − b·r, and Y = C + I + G. Collecting terms gives (1−c₁)Y + b·r = A, autonomous spend A = c₀ − c₁T + I₀ + G. Downward: r↑ ⇒ Y↓.

LM (money clears): demand L = k·Y − h·r meets real supply M/P, so k·Y − h·r = M/P. Upward: Y↑ ⇒ r↑.

Solve the 2×2 for the current sliders — the unique intersection:

quantityvalue
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THE LINEAGE — goods meet money AVAN

Hicks 1937 built the intersection that sets output and the interest rate together — the frame in which fiscal and monetary shifts can be compared, crowding-out and all.

The LM curve stands on the-quantity-theory: money demand L = kY − hr is what MV = PQ becomes once you let the rate move the velocity term. That sphere is this one's premise; here the money market meets the goods market and neither clears alone.

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THE WITNESS live

The blue team re-solves the canonical case each frame and confirms the four claims: unique crossing, LM upward, fiscal raises the rate, monetary lowers it (opposite signs). If red tampers, this badge is where it shows.

▼ the machine ▼
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DATA IN — the parameters in ↓

Two markets, five behavioural pieces. The middle term is the interest rate r — the price that clears both at once.

piecerulemeaning
Cc₀ + c₁(Y−T)consumption, c₁ = MPC
II₀ − b·rinvestment falls with r
Lk·Y − h·rmoney demand
G, Tfiscal leversspending, taxes
M/Preal moneythe monetary lever

Slide G (fiscal) or M/P (monetary) in the panel below — the intersection re-solves on the spot, never looked up.

▼   feed the parameters into the engine   ▼
0

▣ THE PANEL — the engine LIT

60
100

At the base case, solve for the crossing. Push a lever and watch which way each curve slides.

Blue = IS, amber = LM, dot = (Y*, r*). Faint = the base case, so a policy shift is visible as a slide.

▼   the crossing sets output and the rate   ▼
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DATA OUT — the equilibrium out ↓

What the machine proves, exactly: (Y*, r*) is the unique solution of the 2×2; expansionary fiscal shifts IS right and raises both Y and r — but Y by less than the simple multiplier 1/(1−c₁), the gap being crowding-out; expansionary monetary shifts LM right, raising Y while lowering r. Forecasts from such a model are AMBER — a teaching frame, not advice.

red team · attacks & breaks ◨
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THE ADVERSARY

WALL IS-LM freezes the price level P — it is a short-run, fixed-price frame with no supply side and no expectations. Double the money and it only slides LM; it cannot tell you that prices might simply rise instead (that is the quantity-theory limit). The Lucas critique (1976) says its very coefficients shift when policy does.

The behavioural equations assume rational, stable agents and ceteris paribus AMBER — idealizations, not laws of nature. Economics is not physics: the curves are a story that clears two markets, useful precisely where its assumptions nearly hold.

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THE GRAVEYARD

"IS-LM is Keynes's own model." Cut. It is Hicks's 1937 reading of Keynes; Keynes never drew these curves. Rendered as Hicks's, credited as such.

"Monetary easing always lowers interest rates." Cut. Only the LM-shift (impact) effect does; once prices, expectations, and the horizon move, the sign can flip. The engine shows the short-run comparative static, labelled.

"The model forecasts the economy." Kept, corrected. It is comparative statics — directions of change, not a prediction. Marked AMBER, never sold as advice.

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THE TAMPER — break it

The red team's move: give the LM curve a downward slope (make the rate fall as output rises). Then IS and LM need not cross uniquely and the fiscal/monetary signs invert. The witness (window 7) is watching.

Flip LM and the money market slopes the wrong way — fiscal now lowers the rate, monetary raises it, and the witness recomputes, disagrees, and turns red. Nothing is faked; the attack is real and it is caught.