桜 · day of year

LITPhenology is the science of when seasonal biology happens. Yasuyuki Aono compiled full-flowering dates of Kyoto's cherry trees from court diaries and chronicles, with records reaching back to 812 CE. In 2021, peak bloom fell on March 26, the earliest in the record (widely reported, verified). Spring temperature drives the date, so warming and urban heat have pulled it earlier since about 1850.

MODELThe curve drawn is a synthetic series: a flat baseline near day 105 (about April 15) with noise, then a post-1850 drift, ending at the real 2021 anchor of day 85. It is not Aono's data. The thermal-time toy computes bloom as the day accumulated warmth passes a threshold; drag the warming slider.

warming °C

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